<![CDATA[Missile attacks on US bases weren't Iran's real revenge on Donald Trump. This is]>
Iran's apparent "standing down" after firing missiles at bases housing American military personnel in Iraq " an act of retaliation after the assassination of General Qassem Soleimani " should not lead us to the hurried conclusion that the books are closed on the matter.
It would equally be simplistic to assume that by killing Soleimani, the United States has achieved its primary objective for doing so " curtailing Iran's regional adventurism.
"The reasoning for these arguments can be found in the genesis of Iran's extraterritorial activities, or what US President Donald Trump chooses to call its "malign behaviour", which dates to the Islamic Revolution of 1979 and found expression in Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini's idea of the "export of revolution".
The US has recognised that the export of revolution has been central to the regime since its inception in 1979. A declassified Central Intelligence Agency document dating back to those days stated that "if Iran fails to export its revolution, the country will be isolated in an unfriendly environment of hostile regimes".
It was also underscored that in the calculation of the Iranian leadership, the survival of the Islamic Republic was closely tied "to the overthrow of pro-Western regimes in the Middle East".
Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Photo: AFP alt=Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Photo: AFP
The fact that Iran's Supreme Leaders have never wavered from this goal, and that their concerns have remained essentially the same, means that the present Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, or his successor are unlikely to pursue a different path.
The devastating eight-year Iran-Iraq war crippled Ayatollah Khomeini's ability to export the Islamic Revolution, and he consequently "drank the cup of poison" by accepting a truce mediated by the United Nations in 1988.
While he passed away a year later, his idea of the "export of revolution" as a foundational principle of the Islamic Republic survived, and was given new life in the aftermath of the US invasion of Iraq in 2003.
This was further bolstered by the Arab Spring and the fight against the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (Isis). The invasion of Iraq is now seen as a catastrophic error that upended the region, but ironically, the US intelligence community had predicted just such an outcome much earlier, in 1980.
In an intelligence assessment in 1980, the community predicted that "if Iran succeeds in promoting increased Shia unrest in Iraq " the strongest Arab country in the Gulf " the threat to other countries in the area, especially Saudi Arabia, would be greatly increased".
The subsequent events in Iraq played out exactly as forecast, and propelled Iran into the position it is in today " a formidable player that is able to project power over a large swathe of the Middle East via asymmetric means, such as Shia militias.
INTERNAL DISSENT
While Iran attempts to secure its regime from internal dissent through tight control over media and a vast internal security establishment intelligence system, its regional activism provides it with a pre-emptive shield from external threats.
Iran cannot hope to go toe-to-toe with the US in terms of conventional power, so it secures regime survival via asymmetric means, such as the use of regional proxies " the idea being that it will extract a high, possibly unbearable cost, if America decides to go to war.
These regional proxies are largely directed by the Quds Force, the outfit commanded by Soleimani, which is a formidable arm of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). It is important to highlight that the entire IRGC, including the Quds Force, is led by its Supreme Commander, Ayatollah Khamenei.
It is equally important to note that the IRGC was created by the leader of the Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Khomeini, to protect the Islamic Republic and it is more powerful than Iran's regular military. Notably, neither the function of the IRGC nor its necessity has changed in the eyes of Iranian leadership.
US President Donald Trump. Photo: AFP alt=US President Donald Trump. Photo: AFP
Along with the Quds Force, Iran's robust intelligence apparatus provides it the wherewithal to carry out its extraterritorial activities and is central to its "axis of resistance", or what is also called the "Shia Crescent" which includes Lebanon's Hezbollah, the Assad regime in Syria, and Iraqi Shia militias.
This is a strategy that has paid dividends to Iran in terms of keeping its regional and global rivals, such as the US, Saudi Arabia and Israel, at bay. Consequently, it has been Iran's strategy to support the Shia militias in countries where Shia Muslims are present in substantial numbers.
This is done via political, financial, and military aid, as well as moral support. Evidently, Iran's experience of raising the Basij Militia " a volunteer paramilitary force that functions as part of IRGC and carries out internal security and moral policing duties, among others " has been helpful in this regard.
It is also notable that by virtue of being the Marja al-Taqlid (Source of Emulation) for Shia Muslims, the Supreme Leader enjoys allegiance among large sections of the sect outside the country, particularly among those in the Twelver Shia branch.
This explains the limitation of the brute military force or threats to curtail Iran's regional influence. For people so accustomed to mourning the death of their beloved in Muharram year after year, it may not be easy to forget the killing of Soleimani.
Therefore, the current lull may only signify the repeat of history " Ayatollah Khamenei following in the footsteps of his predecessor in drinking "the cup of poison".
Effectively, what appears to be "standing down" could instead be a form of strategic patience. As long as Iranian leaders see a threat to their clerical rule, there is little suggestion that they will do away with regional activism.
This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).
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