The Inverted Likability Test

The outcome of the 2004 election offered pundits a puzzle. George W. Bush had, as many of them saw it, been a disastrous president. He redistributed money from the poor to the rich. He started a war that was rapidly turning sour. Most irritating of all, he constantly stumbled over his own words. How, they asked themselves, could so many of their compatriots have once again voted for such a doofus?

As pundits dissected the outcome, one data point seemed to provide a plausible explanation. According to a poll taken two months before the election, most undecided voters would have preferred to drink a beer with Bush rather than his opponent, John Kerry. As one columnist for put it at the time, “President Bush, despite his many problems, strikes