<![CDATA[With the party over, Beijing needs to see progress on Hong Kong, US trade talks]>

The same day and night in Hong Kong, black-clad protesters were determined to spoil the country's big anniversary by turning much of the city into a battleground in one of the most violent episodes in nearly four months of protests.

On the day when President Xi Jinping used the grand rally, aimed at projecting national confidence and unity, to declare that no force could ever undermine China's status, or stop the Chinese people and nation from marching forward, the violent protests in Hong Kong sent a quite different message that many people in the city did not share Xi's vision. That point was underlined by the dramatic photos, carried by the media around the world, of a Hong Kong police officer shooting a teenage protester in the chest at close range.

A protester in Hong Kong is taken to hospital after being shot by a police officer. Photo: Handout

In a way, the contrast is a fitting metaphor of the severe challenges the Chinese leadership faces at a time of profound international and domestic change. These challenges include the trade war with the United States, and a slowing Chinese economy.

Now that the big party is over, how Xi and his administration set about tackling those challenges will be closely watched around the world.

One indicator will come later this month when China's political elite, the Communist Party's Central Committee, convenes its annual plenary session to discuss what official media has termed "important issues concerning how to uphold and improve the system of socialism with Chinese characteristics and make progress in modernising China's system and capacity for governance".

To paraphrase the official parlance, the meeting is aimed at finding ways to further strengthen the rule of the party over the country. Items on the agenda will most likely include the challenges thrown up by the mounting international pushback against China's rise. Among these challenges are the trade war with the US, the unrest in Hong Kong, and China's slowing economy.

Doves are released in Beijing during celebrations for the 70th founding anniversary of the People's Republic of China. Photo: Xinhua

It is interesting to note that the upcoming session has been delayed for more than a year, which has given rise to speculation over whether Xi has faced internal political opposition. The Central Committee usually meets once a year, usually in October, to set the course on important political and economic issues but the elite did not meet in October last year.

While the leadership has not announced firm dates for the meeting, it is most likely to occur after the upcoming round of China-US trade talks reportedly set for October 10 to 11 in Washington.

To a certain extent, any progress or lack of it at the latest round of trade talks would help shape the mood at the subsequent meeting of the Chinese elites in Beijing.

Riding on the back of China's hugely successful anniversary rally that flaunted the country's wealth and military power, Beijing's trade delegation to the US, led by Vice-Premier Liu He, may be expected to play hard ball in the negotiations, particularly after the US media reported late last month that the White House was considering a ban on US investments in Chinese companies, causing share prices of US-listed Chinese companies to fall sharply.

A protester in Hong Kong in front of a fire near Sham Shui Po Station, during a demonstration on China's National Day. Photo: Reuters

But there are also reasons to believe that both Beijing and Washington are better motivated to work towards meaningful progress in their talks to end the trade war, which has lasted more than a year.

By now, both sides have already had a clear understanding of each other's bottom lines and, particularly, the mounting uncertainties from the prolonged trade war have started to inflict greater pains on the economies of both countries.

The latest data shows that US jobs growth has been less than expected, while a benchmark manufacturing gauge contracted further last month, making for the weakest reading since June 2009, rattling the US stock market. Meanwhile, the Chinese economy is also under increasing downward pressure.

At a time when President Donald Trump is facing a formal impeachment inquiry in the US Congress, notable progress in trade negotiations with China would help buoy the US stock markets and ramp up purchases of American agricultural products. After all, US farmers are among Trump's greatest supporters.

For Beijing, meanwhile, notable progress in trade talks would help create the right atmosphere for the subsequent meeting of the Chinese elite.

Furthermore, it would also add credence to China's claim that as the world's second-largest economy, it will take more responsibility in upholding the global system and further open its economy to foreign investment at a time when the US is retreating.

Moreover, progress in China-US trade negotiations could prompt Beijing to seek a more effective strategy for ending the escalating crisis in Hong Kong.

The Chinese leaders may have adopted a policy of waiting out the protests but the escalating violence in Hong Kong, part of China's own territory, does not reflect well on Beijing's vision of itself as a new world power charting a path for developing countries to emulate.

Indeed, it could be argued that if Beijing cannot ensure Hong Kong is run smoothly, its much-vaunted governance model rings hollow, whatever the hyperbole of the official media.

In many ways, Hong Kong has become a battleground for political influence between Western countries, led by the United States, and China. At present, Beijing is not on the winning side.

This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).

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