<![CDATA[India shouldn't make Bangladesh pick sides between it and China]>
Bangladesh and India have long been close, right from the former's emergence as an independent sovereign state in 1971. But in 2003, China overtook India as Bangladesh's primary trading partner " and has remained so ever since.
This is something Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi should keep in mind when he receives his Bangladeshi counterpart Sheikh Hasina on Thursday.
As of 2017, India's total two-way trade with Bangladesh was less than US$7 billion " half the figure between Bangladesh and China.
Dhaka has also signed up to Beijing's Belt and Road Initiative, enabling it to receive generous financial support for infrastructure development " such as the loan of US$23 billion agreed to by President Xi Jinping in 2016 when he became the first Chinese leader to visit Bangladesh for three decades. Almost US$14 billion worth of memorandums of understanding were also signed during the same trip.
Chinese President Xi Jinping during his visit to Bangladesh in 2016. Photo: AFP
This level of trade and investment is unlikely to be matched by India any time soon.
Meanwhile, Bangladesh has established robust military ties with China in recent years, emerging as the second biggest importer of Chinese arms between 2011 and 2015. In total, one-fifth of China's military exports are now bought by Dhaka " including two diesel-powered Type 035 submarines in 2016 for "friendly" prices that raised eyebrows in New Delhi.
India might feel that naval cooperation between Bangladesh and China is making for a very "crowded" Bay of Bengal.
Yet Hasina's visit, along with that of Xi on October 12, provides an opportunity for India to signal that it can form constructive relationships with its neighbours " especially important given the discordant relations it has with Pakistan.
Residents of Pakistani administered Kashmir rally against India last month. Photo: EPA
Both Bangladesh and Pakistan share a common Islamic identity, so it is critical from Delhi's perspective that a more positive relationship template be presented and none of the religious fervour that has expressed itself in the form of Pakistani terrorism in India finds root in Bangladeshi civil society.
And while India is wary of Dhaka improving its security ties with Beijing, as Islamabad has, it should not let this detract from seeking a cooperative Bangladesh-India-China relationship.
The reality is that Beijing has much deeper pockets than Delhi, and thanks in part to the latter's belt and road project almost all South Asian nations have a large Chinese footprint in their trade and investment portfolio, as well as their military inventories.
Given its smaller economy and lack of significant military export base, India is not seen as a credible alternative by its neighbours.
Hambantota Port in Sri Lanka pictured in April. Photo: Xinhua
South Asian nations are cognisant of Sri Lanka's experience with its Hambantota Port in which China, through large loans for infrastructure development, acquired a 99-year lease on a strategically valuable piece of real estate in the Indian Ocean. All are wary of walking into a debt trap and Dhaka is no novice in dealing with major powers.
At the end of the day, India will have to accept a certain Chinese presence in Bangladesh and avoid forcing Dhaka into choosing between the two Asian giants.
In the past, Hasina has indicated that her government would like the "space" to engage with all major Asian powers and Delhi ought to enable this kind of regional multilateralism.
Bangladesh has the potential to be an arena for cautious India-China engagement and coexistence, in contrast with the zero-sum game that has played out in Pakistan.
A complementary approach could help Bangladesh build better infrastructure. Photo: AFP
Such a complementary approach could, in the best case scenario, work well for all " providing Bangladesh with greater prosperity and moving it up to developing nation status. It would also serve as an example to emulate for Pakistan, which is currently beleaguered by a host of challenges.
China under Xi has lofty ambitions and these could be better realised if the Sino-Indian relationship were less uneasy and discordant than it is now. Bangladesh offers an opportunity for China to demonstrate that smaller South Asian neighbours do not have to make binary choices and can engage with India in a manner they deem appropriate.
The long term gain for Beijing is that Bangladesh could be the arena where China and India cautiously learn to cooperate " something they do not in a tangible manner in any other sector.
But whether such strategic perspicacity and prudence will prevail depends on the outcome of the meeting between Modi and Xi later this month.
This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).
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