<![CDATA[Asean summit: splits over China put Thailand's Prayuth Chan-ocha in the hot seat]>
The pressure is on Thailand's coup leader turned prime minister Prayuth Chan-ocha to launch the Southeast Asian country back onto the world stage and mediate some especially thorny issues at the Asean Summit in Bangkok this weekend.
The two-day summit will be Prayuth's first time leading the bloc since he assumed office after the 2014 military coup. Leaders from all 10 member states " Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam and Singapore, which held the chairmanship last year " will descend on the capital for what Prayuth hopes will be a meeting of "advancing partnerships" and creating a "seamless Asean".
"Thailand has outlined an ambitious agenda for its Asean chairmanship, including initiatives on sustainability and the digital economy," said Brian Harding, deputy director and fellow of the Southeast Asia Programme at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies. "While the Ministry of Foreign Affairs is of course heavily focused on this agenda, it's clear that Prime Minister Prayuth is naturally more focused on domestic politics and staging a summit that marks a full return for Thailand to the international stage."
Thailand previously hosted the Asean Summit in 2009, when redshirt protesters stormed the conference venue in the resort town of Pattaya to protest against then prime minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, forcing the summit to be aborted. Today, Thai politics has seemingly calmed with Prayuth's ascendancy.
China's Premier Li Keqiang (third from right) joins Asean leaders at last year's summit. This year, China's influence will continue to be a big issue up for debate. Photo: Reuters
Paul Chambers, an international relations academic at Thailand's Naresuan University, said Prayuth's new-found legitimacy would put him in the spotlight on the world stage, as international pressure declines for Thailand to return to democracy.
"Prayuth has the opportunity to build up Thailand's stature within the regional grouping, especially since he enjoys enhanced legitimacy following his 2019 election as Thailand's prime minister," he said.
Accepting the role of chairman at the end of the 33rd Asean Summit in Singapore last November, Prayuth listed infrastructure and connectivity as key to "strengthening Asean".
This connectivity, undoubtedly, will go hand in hand with China's global infrastructure drive, the Belt and Road Initiative. Prayuth met Chinese President Xi Jinping during the Belt and Road Forum in April and the former general vowed Thailand would continue to support and participate in the initiative and, as Asean chair, promote Asean-China relations.
Ships from four nations sailing together in the waters of the South China Sea as they participate in the Asean Maritime Security Field Training Exercise. Photo: EPA
"The idea of pushing connectivity also aligns with his desire to bolster infrastructure in Thailand, especially the Eastern Economic Corridor project," said Joshua Kurlantzick, senior fellow for Southeast Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations.
The Eastern Economic Corridor, the junta government's flagship foreign investment project, is still in its early stages, but Thai officials have worked hard to court mainland investors to move their production bases there.
Thailand this week pledged US$200 million for the newly set-up ACMECS fund, a development initiative between Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Thailand and Vietnam aimed at complementing or balancing two China-related initiatives " the belt and road and the Greater Mekong Sub-regional Economic Cooperation.
It has also pledged to complete negotiations on the RCEP " Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, a free-trade pact between Asean and India, China, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand " by the end of the year.
It remains unclear if Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte will raise a recent incident in the South China Sea at the Asean Summit. Photo: Bloomberg
Asean has a raft of issues to cover at this year's summit, from human rights violations to territorial disputes and China's rising influence. And as chair, Prayuth will be watched closely on how he tries to mediate across them all before the hopeful release of a joint communique on Sunday.
"In theory, Prayuth would be some kind of mediator and try to reach consensus, [but] I am not sure any Asean chair could necessarily bridge the gaps among Asean members in terms of who is more or less concerned about China's growing regional influence and influence on specific areas like the South China Sea," Kurlantzick said.
"The primary deliverable to emerge from an Asean summit is a chairman's statement ... because it is considered a broad signal to the rest of the world of Asean's position," said Aaron Connelly, a research fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
"It requires a certain amount of diplomacy from the chair. Where there are disagreements, the chair must seek a form of words that will minimise the appearance of divisions between Asean members, without disregarding either side's position."
Another hugely divisive issue, which has spurred disunity among Asean nations, is that of the negotiations surrounding the South China Sea Code of Conduct.
China has called for the code to be finalised by 2021, but Asean nations have yet to agree on sticking points. Among them are Hanoi's calls for the pact to ban many of the things China has done in the waterway in recent years, including artificial island building, blockades and the deployment of weapons such as missiles. Beijing, meanwhile, not only wants to be allowed to continue such activities, but also to have all military drills with outside powers blocked unless all signatories agree, and to exclude foreign oil firms from the region by limiting joint development deals.
Analysts expect Hanoi will use Vietnam's chairmanship of Asean next year to focus on South China Sea matters and even push for negotiations to wrap up.
A Philippine official this week said the code would be raised at this weekend's summit. But it remains unclear if President Rodrigo Duterte will bring up a June 9 incident where a Chinese ship was involved in a collision with a Philippine fishing vessel in Reed Bank, which is within the country's exclusive economic zone.
China has denied the Chinese crew abandoned the Philippine fishermen.
"Given that the Philippines is likely to use the incident as a further reason to finalise a code of conduct, rather than using it as a galvanising incident to push back against China more broadly, they are likely to find common cause with Thailand," Harding said.
"The issue has divided Asean, with Cambodia in particular siding with Beijing while other countries such as Vietnam have opposed Beijing. The result has been intensifying division within Asean," Chambers of Naresuan University said. "If a code of conduct is concluded this year it will be very general in form. China is looking for a greater willingness from Asean to accept more Chinese investment and trade while acquiescing to Chinese policy in the South China Sea."
Rohingya refugees gather near the fence in the "no man's land" zone between Myanmar and Bangladesh. The humanitarian crisis is one of a number of issues up for debate at the Asean Summit. Photo: AFP
Other issues for Asean at this summit include the "Indo-Pacific Outlook", an Indonesia-proposed concept of Asean's geopolitical strategy. The outlook was reportedly rejected by Singapore this month just before its expected release at the Bangkok summit.
"This is Asean's response to the US' Indo-Pacific strategy which aims to create a new geopolitical boundary. The bloc will need to test the water first before approving anything," said Dulyapak Preecharush, assistant professor of Southeast Asian Studies at Thammasat University.
On the Rohingya humanitarian crisis, Dulyapak said Thai leaders' "close" relations with Myanmar would lead diplomats from both countries to be especially careful as other nations continue to call for justice. "Malaysia and Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad have been outspoken about the need to ensure justice and accountability" on the Rohingya issue, said Matthew Smith from rights group Fortify Rights.
Myanmar State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi is expected to attend this weekend's summit.
Despite the many significant hurdles in the way of Asean unity, Prayuth enters this year's summit in a favourable position, according to Dr Kaewkamol Pitakdumrongkit, assistant professor at S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies.
This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).
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