<![CDATA[Thailand's Prayuth Chan-ocha: the military man with staying power]>

Many Thais laughed when leader Prayuth Chan-ocha told them to pick up George Orwell's 1945 satire of the Stalin regime Animal Farm for an entertaining read a week before the parliament voted to confirm his second term in the job since taking power in a 2014 military coup.

But it was hardly the first time he has been laughed at, despite being Thailand's most powerful military man. The 65-year-old former general's repeated outbursts at reporters, at times swearing at them while being bombarded with unwanted questions, has regularly brought shock and surprise.

His temper has characterised his rule. Last year he placed a life-size cardboard cut-out of himself wearing a suit and tie in front of a microphone and walked away, telling media to ask the replica questions instead.

Despite all these plays, Prayuth is on the cusp of becoming one of the longest-serving Thai prime ministers in history. In a combined ballot of both the House of Representatives and the Senate, the parliament on Wednesday reinstalled him for a second term with 500 votes in favour and 244 for his rival, Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, a charismatic political newcomer.

Some Thais were unhappy about the outcome, with hashtag #RIPTHAILAND and #NotMyPM trending on Thai Twitter in the aftermath.

"I was disappointed because I'm part of a new generation and I hope that the country could move forward to be better than it is now," Suchanya Boonchu, 19, told Reuters.

Prayuth's unpopularity among millennials is not new, but it has yet to spur a change in Thai politics. "Prayuth's character has always been criticised as immature and laughed at," said Yutthaporn Issarachai, a political scientist at Sukhothai Thammathirat University. "But he could be in the job for the next few years at the very least."

If that occurs, Prayuth will have served as prime minister for eight unobstructed years " as long as the late privy council chief General Prem Tinsulanonda, who held office through parliamentary consensus during the 1980s.

Members of the parliament representing military-backed Palang Pracharath party raise their hands approving the nomination of Prayuth Chan-ocha as Thailand's Prime Minister. Photo: AP

Academics have called for Prayuth to follow General Prem's example: not the former leader's reputation as the "silent one" for never giving interviews while in power, but his decision at the end of his term in 1988 that "It is enough".

Until that day comes, however, critics say the junta will hold onto power because it has created a network of mechanisms and supports to ensure it.

"The tangible outcome of the junta's efforts came out in the form of the 2017 constitution and the appointment of the senate and members of independent organisations," Yutthaporn said.

"These factors will help him for the next few years in office. The senate can help him pass laws in the parliament and censure debate is only allowed to happen once a year."

Other observers agreed there is a "planned" effort to create the "Prayuth regime" whose influence will be on par with that of General Prem's, whom the military and pro-establishment faction looked up to.

"Prayut has succeeded in becoming parliamentary prime minister because of the combined efforts of the junta and royalist aristocracy through a manipulated election and co-opted political parties," said Paul Chambers, a lecturer in international relations at Naresuan University.

"With the installation of the Palang Pracharat government, with Gen Prayuth as prime minister, everything has gone to plan," said Patrick Jory, a Southeast Asian History academic at the University of Queensland. "The aim is to ensure tight military-bureaucratic control over politics, while allowing a semblance of democratic governance to give the new government some legitimacy."

Thailand's Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha and his military generals at the opening of parliament in Bangkok after the 2014 military coup. Photo: AFP

Prayuth graduated from the Chulachomklao Royal Military Academy in 1976 and spent the next few decades of his career in the 21st Infantry Regiment, also known as the Queen's Guards or the "eastern tigers" corps.

It is here where he forged long-standing friendship with General Prawit Wongsuwon and General Anupong Paochinda, who are the Defence and Interior Ministers respectively in his administration. Both are powerful eastern tigers who have been viewed as opponents of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra since he was ousted in the 2006 coup under allegations of corruption and abuse of power.

Prawit and Anupong have been influential within the junta, with Prawit personally overseeing the Senate selection, the process or the criteria of which have never been declared publicly.

When Thaksin's sister Yingluck Shinawatra took over as prime minister the following year, Prayuth was seen by her side on several occasions, as the Shinawatra clan tried to mend ties with the army, most notably during the major floods of 2011.

But after her administration passed the amnesty bill in late 2013 to pave way for Thaksin Shinawatra's safe return, street protests ensued. Yingluck called a snap election that was later invalidated, but was seen as a pretext for the coup led by Prayuth months later. The general said at the time it was "the hardest decision" he had to make in his life.

Before the March election this year, Prayuth never went on the campaign trail with the junta proxy, the Palang Pracharat party, in a bid to distance himself from the status of a politician. He wanted to create an image of himself as the antithesis of corrupt and greedy politicians who he vowed to do away with while in power.

But with his transition from coup leader to prime minister almost complete, it is unlikely this next term in office will be anything like the last.

"Though Prayuth has a strong man's personality and an army background with clear support from conservative forces, he will have to contend with a growing number of Thai people who want to move away from a military dominant political regime," Chambers said. "This would be felt through likely opposition to him via the lower house and demonstrations."

University of Queensland's Jory said the "situation is still uncertain" for Prayuth.

"The PM no longer has the emergency powers like Article 44 that he had during the period of the military junta, so he will face more criticism and opposition," he said.

"Governing will not be as easy as it was under the military regime. But we should not underestimate the willingness of Thailand's conservative establishment to ensure that it remains in control of Thailand's political scene."

This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).

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