For US and China, the real friction over Taiwan is yet to come
Even if the United States and China can find a way out of their simmering trade dispute, the next topic that could provoke an ugly clash may already be upon them: Taiwan.
A string of recent events has served to highlight escalating tensions between Washington, Beijing and Taipei. These culminated in the past week in a series of tit-for-tat military displays in the Taiwan Strait.
On Wednesday, the People's Liberation Army followed up its massive show of strength in the South China Sea a week earlier by heading to the strait - reportedly on the orders of Chinese President Xi Jinping - to carry out unexpected live-fire drills.
This was clearly a message to Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen, who had herself only recently returned from watching her own navy simulate an invasion off the island's east coast.
China's Liaoning aircraft carrier battle group on exercise in the South China Sea. Photo: Xinhua
More recently, Trump's signing of the National Defence Authorisation Act and the Taiwan Travel Act have indicated a change in policy as both pieces of legislation call for and legalise an increase in military exchanges with the self-ruled, democratic island.
Secretary of State-designate Mike Pompeo. Photo: AP Photo
But two further US actions that appear to be in the works threaten to make the biggest mess of US-China relations since Nixon.
US National Security Adviser John Bolton: Taiwan bound? Photo: Reuters
Secondly, Trump's authorisation for American manufacturers to sell submarine technology to the island will enrage Beijing as it will substantively help upgrade the island's defences against any military invasion by mainland forces.
Taiwanese submarines at a naval base in Greater Kaohsiung. Photo: Kyodo
Even if this is the case, Trump would be playing with fire. Any major policy change on Taiwan would trigger a robust reaction from Beijing - especially at a time when strongman leader Xi has put national reunification high on the agenda.
But there's another scenario, in which Trump isn't cynically using the island in a high stakes game of cards aimed at winning trade advantages.
He may be warming to Taiwan because he feels it is intertwined with America's core national interests - its values and politics, its economy and respect for democracy and freedom.
Either way, we appear set on a collision course.
This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).
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