Battle for Gujarat: Will Modi Shah be able to protect their home turf?
On October 16, members of a spiritual movement called Divine Life Mission gathered for a satsang in Eral village. The venue was the haveli of Harvardhan Singh Chauhan, the erstwhile Thakur of the village. After the satsang, the conversation drifted towards politics. The village is in central Gujarat, a BJP bastion, so Chauhan didn't expect any surprises when he asked the knot of 15 villagers, including farmers, about the likely result of the coming assembly election. The ambivalent reply shocked him. "Let's see what's in store this time," a member of the group said.
When Chauhan insisted the BJP's formidable election machinery and Prime Minister Narendra Modi would see them through, one of the farmers shot back: "But he's not going to lead the Gujarat government." The rest of the group nodded their heads in silence. "It is this silence that is worrying for the BJP," Chauhan says.
It is a worry that is reflected in Prime Minister Modi's frequent trips to Gujarat eight in the past five months. Like an indulgent parent making up for his absence, Modi has been on a gifting spree. He has announced or inaugurated projects worth over Rs 20,000 crore, not counting the Rs 1.1 lakh crore Ahmedabad Mumbai high speed rail, the foundation stone for which was laid on September 14. It didn't stop there: there was the Sardar Sarovar dam project dedicated to the nation and also the inauguration of the first phase of the Rs 615 crore roll on, roll off ferry service between Ghogha and Dahej.
To call Gujarat the mother of all battles for both the BJP and the Congress would not be a misnomer. Modi and BJP chief Amit Shah face their biggest test over the next few weeks all the way up to the two phase elections finally scheduled for December 9 and 14. Anti incumbency will play a part; after all, the BJP has been in power in the state for 22 years (since 1995). And now there is the discontent over the Centre's twin economic moves demonetisation and the Goods and Services Tax (GST).
On the face of it, things still look good for the BJP. An india today Axis My India Opinion Poll conducted between September 25 and October 15 in all 182 constituencies of the
