The Social Physics of Trump’s Shock Tactics

Even as some describe his campaign as being in “melt-down mode,” political scientists and pundits are still searching for ways to explain the “Trump phenomenon.”¹ They attribute his success in the Republican primaries to a host of factors, from the American public’s frustration with establishment politics to their belief that he can provide national and economic security.

But political scientists are not the only ones curious about Trump—physicists are, too.

Chief among them is Serge Galam, director of research at the National Center for Scientific Research, in France, which uses statistical physics techniques to analyze social phenomena. In the 1980s, he began developing a threshold model to explain how minority opinions can, in a democratic, majority-rule voting system, end up dominating the discourse. According to the model, people update their opinions by adhering to the majority opinion of local groups (made of two to six members). This is usually straightforward: If an opinion is held by more than 50 percent of a given group, its members will adopt it and spread it to other groups they end up joining.